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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are massive underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.6% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Jacksonville offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 46.5% red zone pass rate.

The projections expect the Jaguars to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Jaguars have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.

Trevor Lawrence's 63.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents an impressive decrease in his passing accuracy over last season's 66.2% figure.

This year, the daunting Eagles defense has conceded a puny 68.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.

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