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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+136/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +144 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +136.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Jaguars, who are -4.5-point underdogs.

The projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may slide.

In averaging a staggering 33.3 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Trevor Lawrence rates among the top quarterbacks in football (80th percentile) in this respect.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest level in the NFL against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (72.8% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 45.0% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the league in this setting has been the Jaguars.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected by the projections to run just 60.4 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.

The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.05 per game since the start of last season.

More Trevor Lawrence Player Props

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