Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-136/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 35.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.5% to 61.2%.
The Houston Texans defense has given up the least TDs through the air in the league: 0.84 per game since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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