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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.9 plays per game.

This year, the weak Titans defense has conceded a massive 73.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-largest rate in the NFL.

The Titans cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a running game script.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are predicted by the projection model to run 65.7 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most on the slate this week.

This year, the fierce Titans defense has conceded a puny 1.12 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

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