Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:56 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-286/+200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -286.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Jaguars have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.2 per game) this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest level in the NFL vs. the Browns defense this year (61.6% Adjusted Completion%).
The Browns defense has yielded the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.08 per game this year.
As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Cleveland's collection of DEs has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in football.

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