Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-fastest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 36.4 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.

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