Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 58.9% to 65.2%.
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The Jaguars have been the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 51.0% red zone pass rate.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league versus the New York Giants defense this year (65.1%).

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