Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+124/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -161 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 58.9% to 62.7%.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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