Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-235).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 37.2 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Jaguars rank as the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 53.6% red zone pass rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Trevor Lawrence has been among the bottom touchdown throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.90 per game while grading out in the 24th percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (61.2%).

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