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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+127/-169).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -169.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 35.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Trevor Lawrence has been among the weakest TD passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrible 0.79 per game while checking in at the 24th percentile.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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