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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+178/-254).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -254.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

Trevor Lawrence has attempted 36.8 passes per game this year, ranking in the 77th percentile among QBs.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Trevor Lawrence's passing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.0% to 66.1%.

Trevor Lawrence has been among the leading TD passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 1.71 per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the league against the New York Jets defense this year (67.4%).

The New York Jets defense has yielded the 2nd-least passing TDs in the league: 0.93 per game this year.

The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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