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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+131/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Trevor Lawrence's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 58.9% to 65.2%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars have been the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 48.4% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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