Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Trevor Lawrence to total 4.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Trevor Lawrence isn't afraid to call his own number, taking on 16.4% of his offense's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among QBs.
Trevor Lawrence has run for substantially more yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (17.0).
Trevor Lawrence's 6.76 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year reflects a significant improvement in his rushing proficiency over last year's 5.39 figure.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.8% run rate.
The Jacksonville offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football last year at opening holes for runners.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been excellent this year, ranking as the 7th-best in football.

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