Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.
Trevor Lawrence has averaged 4.0 rush attempts per game this year, one of the biggest rates in the league when it comes to QBs (78th percentile).
Trevor Lawrence isn't afraid to run the ball himself, making up 14.6% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile among quarterbacks.
Trevor Lawrence's 26.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season marks a noteworthy gain in his running proficiency over last season's 17.0 mark.

Favors Under

The model projects the Jaguars as the 8th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 39.8% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
This year, the porous Houston Texans run defense has surrendered a whopping 3.67 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's rushing attack: the 31st-highest rate in the NFL.

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