Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (14.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties rank as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have risked going for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Trevor Lawrence has rushed for many fewer yards per game (13.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).
Trevor Lawrence's rushing effectiveness (4.45 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (24th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense owns the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.38 yards-per-carry.