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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (15.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.2% in games he has played).

The Denver Broncos defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 5.11 yards-per-carry.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.

The Denver Broncos defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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