Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 3:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (15.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.2% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 5.11 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Denver Broncos defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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