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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-114/-106).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (16.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.3% in games he has played).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

Trevor Lawrence has run for many fewer yards per game (13.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).

The Indianapolis Colts defense owns the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 3.72 yards-per-carry.

The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best group of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

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