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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to notch 4.6 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.

THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (15.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.8% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

Trevor Lawrence has rushed for many fewer yards per game (9.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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