Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
Trevor Lawrence has averaged 3.6 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, one of the largest rates in the NFL among QBs (79th percentile).
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (14.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.5% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, yielding 4.91 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst group of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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