Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (15.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.54 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the league this year with their run defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 8th-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 37.9% run rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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