Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to total 4.5 carries in this game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (16.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).
Trevor Lawrence's ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, notching 5.93 yards-per-carry vs just 4.80 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-least run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 38.3% run rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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