Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to accrue 4.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (16.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.6% in games he has played).
Trevor Lawrence's rushing efficiency has been refined this year, accumulating 5.59 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 4.80 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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