Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-151/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (14.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.1% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.43 yards-per-carry.
The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 28th-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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