Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (16.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
Trevor Lawrence's running efficiency has gotten a boost this year, averaging 5.67 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 4.80 mark last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 86 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.