Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+106/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to accrue 3.7 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (14.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.4% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 104 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.