Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to notch 4.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (19.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.8% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.9% run rate.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends profile as the 4th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.