Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+387/-808).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +391 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +387.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 49.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
Trevor Lawrence isn't afraid to be involved in the run game near the end zone, accounting for 16.1% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (75th percentile among QBs).
The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least TDs in the league (0.33 per game) against the New York Giants defense this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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