Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-816).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +409 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +390.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 44.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (20.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most TDs in the league (1.25 per game) against the Houston Texans defense this year.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Trevor Lawrence has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among QBs (3rd percentile).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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