Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+403/-865).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -828 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -865.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Trevor Lawrence isn't afraid to call his own number near the end zone, accounting for 18.3% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries since the start of last season (84th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-least run-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 40.6% red zone run rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least TDs in the league (0.56 per game) vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.