Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 3, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-995).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +440 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +436.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars rank as the 8th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.48 seconds per snap.
Trevor Lawrence isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the goal line, accounting for 14.5% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (75th percentile among QBs).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most TDs in the NFL (1.55 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 28th-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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