Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 26, 2022 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-996).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -959 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -996.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars have been the 7th-most run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 51.6% red zone run rate.
Trevor Lawrence isn't afraid to run the ball near the goal line, accounting for 14.3% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (75th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.