Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 9:58 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-1010).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
Trevor Lawrence isn't afraid to be involved in the run game near the goal line, accounting for 16.1% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts since the start of last season (85th percentile among QBs).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-least run-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.1% red zone run rate.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends profile as the 4th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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