Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 243.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 237.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 243.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.60 seconds per play.
The Jaguars O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Falcons pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.94 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.5% to 62.7%.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.61 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-fewest in football.
As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, Atlanta's group of safeties has been excellent since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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