Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 240.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 238.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 240.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 213.0 per game) against the Houston Texans defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Houston Texans defense this year (67.6%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.