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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 240.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 238.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 240.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

Opposing QBs have thrown for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 213.0 per game) against the Houston Texans defense this year.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Houston Texans defense this year (67.6%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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