Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 235.5 (-142/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 232.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 235.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has passed for significantly more yards per game (244.0) this year than he did last year (212.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.