Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 225.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 225.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has passed for a lot more yards per game (240.0) this season than he did last season (213.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.