Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 8:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have risked going for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

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