Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Pass Attempts

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-160/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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