Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Pass Attempts

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Trevor Lawrence has attempted 36.8 passes per game this year, ranking in the 77th percentile among QBs.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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