Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Pass Attempts

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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