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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Interceptions
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Trevor Lawrence Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

The Houston Texans have intercepted 1.06 passes per game this year, ranking as the 10th-best defense in the league by this statistic.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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