Trevor Lawrence Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Completions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 58.9% to 63.0%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (74.5%).

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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