Trevor Lawrence Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Completions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 58.9% to 66.3%.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the Houston Texans defense this year (64.3%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.