Trevor Lawrence Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Completions

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Houston Texans defense this year (67.6%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.