Trevor Lawrence Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Completions

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Trevor Lawrence has attempted 36.8 passes per game this year, ranking in the 77th percentile among QBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's passing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.0% to 66.1%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line has allowed their QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the league against the New York Jets defense this year (67.4%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.