Trevor Lawrence Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Trevor Lawrence to total 4.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Trevor Lawrence isn't afraid to call his own number, taking on 16.4% of his offense's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.8% run rate.
The Jacksonville offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football last year at opening holes for runners.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been excellent this year, ranking as the 7th-best in football.

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