Trevor Lawrence Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-108/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

In terms of a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.49 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars as the 6th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) right now.
The weather report calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Trevor Lawrence has averaged 3.7 carries per game this year, one of the biggest rates in football when it comes to QBs (77th percentile).
The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

A passing game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 39.6% of their chances: the 10th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.

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