Tre'Quan Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tre'Quan Smith

NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +123 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Tre'Quan Smith's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 65.3% to 69.7%.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tre'Quan Smith has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (59.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (74.9%).
Tre'Quan Smith's receiving talent has diminished this year, compiling a measly 2.3 yards per game compared to 3.3 last year.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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