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Tre'Quan Smith

Tre'Quan Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals

Tre'Quan Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 7th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Tre'Quan Smith's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 56.0%.

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.2%).

The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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