Tre'Quan Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tre'Quan Smith

NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 7th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Tre'Quan Smith's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 56.0%.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.2%).
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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