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Tre'Quan Smith

Tre'Quan Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings

Tre'Quan Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-175).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.6%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (67.6%).

The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.

The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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